Lecture & Exercises for Thu October 17

1. We have started Ch 3, with simulation methods for sampling from the posterior distribution, involving acceptance-rejection methods and MCMC. The curriculum for Ch 3 includes Sections 1, 2. 3, but only 3.4.1 and 3.4.2 from Section 4. From Ch 4, only Section 4.1 is inside the curriculum, and from this terrain some of the main methodology is spelled out in the Nils Exercises & Lecture Notes #22, #23.

2. For Thu Oct 17, we work through the rest of Exam stk 4020 from 2008, exercises 2, 3, 1. For the Abel envelopes, provide and compare *two* analyses: (a) based on the data avaiable per 2008, with R envelopes 280, 304, 308, 310, 328; (b) based on two more numbers that came to light in 2012, namely 314, 336.

3. Over the course of the coming days I will be uploading a few R programmes on this website, pertaining to some of the exercises we're going through.

4. Free cake Tue Oct 15: The Sverdup Prize and distributions of confidence:
https://sites.google.com/site/nsfoslo/forside/diverse/sverdrupprisen-2013

5. Jeg vil sette pris på om den studenten som underveis i undervisningen 10/10 stilte meg spørsmål om hierarkiske modeller kan sende meg en mail.