Preliminary by January 2012
Pensum er hentet fra;
Euginia Kalnay: Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability, 2003. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 0-521-79179-0-ISBN 0-521-79629-6 (pbk,). Chapters 1, 5 (except 5.4.4, 5.5.2, 5.7.2 and 5.7.3) and 6 (except the pararaphs form p. 218 (bottom:: So far we have used...) to p. 220 (top); and except pages 229-231 until section 6.4.3). .
(Lister over noen trykkfeil i Kalnays bok er her og her .)
Skriftlig materiale utover dette (det som er pensum er markert spesielt) og noe å leke seg med:
ECMWF: "Description of EPS Meteograms ( *PENSUM* )" in pdf HERE.
Anders Persson: User Guide to ECMWF Forecast Products, 2011. ECMWF_web:http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/index.html. ( The entire guide is recommended reading, but: * PENSUM: The following parts: * Ch. 2.3; Ch. 3; Ch. 5; AND Appendix B.). Useful guide HERE.
S. Corti, F. Molteni and T.N. Palmer: Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes, 1999. 1999 Macmilan Magazines Ltd (Nature). Nature, Volume 398 (29.april 1999), sidene 799 - 802 ( * PENSUM* ). pdf HERE.
Questions on Corti et al (1999) that you will be asked about, are found, HERE.
Meehl et al : Decadal Predictions, 2009. Read about challenges w.r.t. decadal predictions and climate change. (*PENSUM*). HERE.
Hawkins and Sutton: Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions, 2009. About the large differences between global and regional climate change. (*PENSUM*). HERE.
Tim N. Palmer (ECMWF): EPS-Verification ( * PENSUM * ), pdf HERE.
"Non-Linear Lab": Logistic Map ( * PENSUM* ), 2004. HERE.
You can make some simple experiments (*PENSUM*). HERE.
The Lorenz model with a few parameter choices (*PENSUM*). PLAY HERE.
*PENSUM*: Figures shown - and some not shown - in the lectures, 2004. Powerpoint HERE.
(*PENSUM*) R. N. Bannister: A review of forecast error covariance statistics in atmospheric variational data assimilation. I: Characteristics and measurements of forecast error covariances., 2008. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Volume 134, Issue 637, pages 1951–1970, October 2008 Part B (Hele er pensum, seksjon 6 er bare kursorisk pensum.). Download from here.
PENSUM: Harald Schyberg: Observations in Numerical Weather Prediction. Powerpoint-presentation GEF 4220, spring 2012.
Støtteliteratur / Extra Reading:
ECMWF-Staff: EDA-perturbations in ECMWF's EPS, 2010. ECMWF. Read about the latest methods used to construct ensembles at ECMWF. (Støtteliteratur / Extra Reading). HERE.
R. Hagedorn ECMWF: Ensemble Verification (excerpt), Renate Hagedorn's slides on Ensemble Verification (Støtteliteratur / Extra Reading). pdf HERE.
ECMWF: Brier Precipitation, 2004. (Støtteliteratur / Extra Reading). pdf HERE.
ECMWF (D. Richardson): Relative Operating Characterisics (ROC) and Cost-Loss analysis (Støtteliteratur / Extra Reading), pdf HERE.
James R. Holton: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, 4th ed,, 2004. Elsevier Academic Press. ISBN: 0-12-354015-1. Selected Chapters: > Ch 8.1 (pp.229-230), and Sections 10.6.1 and 10.6.2 (pp.349-353). *Teoretisk grunnlag for strømningsegimer - anbefalt lesning.*.
Bouttier og Courtier:: Data assimilation concepts and methods., March 1999. ECMWF. ECMWF meteorological training course lecture notes.. Supporting extra reading (pdf-fil).
Novak et al: Uncertainty needs in operational forecasting, 2008. Instructive views on the need for uncertainty information in operational forecasting. (Støtteliteratur / Extra Reading). http://www.uio.no/studier/emner/matnat/geofag/GEF4220/v11/undervisningsmateriale%281%29/Forecaster_and_Uncert_WAF2008.pdf.